PUBLICATIONS IN REFEREED JOURNALS
WORKING PAPERS
“Political beta” (with Ray Fisman, April Knill, and Sergey Mityakov), R&R at Review of Finance
Using a “portfolio theory” framework, we introduce the concept of “political beta” to model firm-level export diversification in response to global political risk. Our model predicts that firms are less responsive to changes in political relations with lower “beta” countries – those that contribute less to the firm’s total political risk. We find patterns consistent with our model using disaggregated Russian firm-by-destination-country data during 2001-2011: trade is positively correlated with political relations, though the effect is far weaker for trading partners whose political relations with Russia are relatively uncorrelated with those of other partners in a firm’s export portfolio.
This paper draws on a new state-level panel dataset and a model of domestic Dutch disease to examine the short-run and long-run effects of oil & natural gas, coal, and agricultural land endowments on state economies during 1936-2015. Using a flexible shift-share estimation approach, where the shift is national resource employment and the share is state resource endowment, we find that different resources had different short-run effects in different time periods, across increases and decreases in resource employment, and across different outcomes. Using long differences, we find that long-run population growth was an important margin of adjustment over 1936-2015. States with larger coal and agricultural endowments per square mile experienced significantly slower population growth than states with smaller endowments per square mile. Resource endowments had no effect on long-run growth in per capita income.
“Adaptation to Climate Change through Migration”
In this paper I study migration as an adaptation mechanism to climate change. I estimate a discrete location choice model, in which households choose residence locations on the basis of potential earnings, moving costs, climate amenities, and population density. I treat population density as endogenous using geological structure as an instrument. This model allows me to estimate counterfactual migratory responses and welfare changes resulting from non-marginal changes in temperature, such as these predicted by most climate models. I also account for general equilibrium effects on population densities arising from individual migration decisions. I find that the costs of climate change are likely to be quite large. In the absence of migration, American households would require their incomes to increase by 20-30 percent on average to attain their present day level of utility. The distribution of those costs is uneven across geographical locations. Some areas in the South would require more than 50 percent increases in terms of current incomes, while some northern locations actually see benefits around 20 percent. Allowing for migratory responses decrease those extremes considerably because of the resulting shifts in population densities. For the hardest hit areas, migration would reduce the costs by more than 10 percent (4-5 percentage points). Areas benefiting the most from climate change without migration would see their benefits reduced due to migratory inflows from other locations.
“The Effect of Weather on Mortality in Russia: What if People Adapt?”
The response to climate change is likely to involve a host of short- and long-run adaptation strategies. Previous research has focused on specific adaptation responses: e.g. change in electricity use, time allocation change. Little is known about overall adaptation response when all potential adaptation techniques are taken into account. In this paper I construct predictions for the climate change impact on mortality in Russia while accounting for a general adaptation response. Namely, using regional monthly mortality and daily temperature data, I estimate a flexible non-parametric relation between weather and mortality. I find that people are better adapted to temperatures that they have been exposed to more often: damages from high temperatures are smaller for regions where the average summer temperature is higher and damages from low temperatures are lower in regions where winters are usually more severe. On the basis of these estimates I propose a way to account for general adaptation response to climate change: If some currently cold region were to regularly experience high temperatures in the future, its response would be similar to the response of warm regions that currently experience such high temperatures on a regular basis. Because the analysis involves observations from a single country it is possible that adaptation would be similar across regions. I illustrate this approach constructing predictions for the impact of climate change on mortality in Russia using business-as-usual temperature predictions from climate change models. No-adaptation specification predicts a one percent increase in mortality by 2070-2099. However, when a broad adaptation response is taken into account my model predicts a decrease in mortality by 0.7 percent by 2070-2099.
WORK IN PROGRESS
“Long Term Effects of Pollution on Children’s Health: Evidence from Russia”
“Temperature and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Moscow Ambulance Daily Calls Data”
“Supply-Side Constrains of Adaptation to Climate Change: Air Conditioners Purchases during 2010 Heat Wave in Russia”