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Chapter 3: The Art and Science of Business “By necessity or by training, innovators are comfortable with uncertainty. But not all of us are. Think about yourself. How comfortable are you making decisions without hard evidence? Would you defend human judgment as scientifically valid? Suppose, for example, you and a friend cannot remember who paid for lunch last time, so you decide to flip a coin to see who pays today. You pull out a U.S. quarter from your pocket, and you notice that it is one of the new quarters, each of which features a different state; this one is from Texas. If you are typical, you would not think twice about using that coin to decide who pays for lunch, even though you have never flipped any of the new Texas quarters before. If someone asked you whether you knew for certain that the coin was ‘fair,’ you would have to agree that you do not know the exact probabilities, that one outcome may be slightly more likely than the other. Should that coin be used without further investigation? Should you first test it out, maybe flipping the coin 1,000 times to see whether you get around 500 ‘heads’?” |
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